In its latest market update, the 2. April filbfilb, co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite, said he now expects BTC/USD to take the top spot.
1 day candlestick chart BTC/USD (Bitstamp) Source: View of the shop
BTC with an imminent breakthrough
Bitcoin rebounded from the flashover of early this week, briefly reaching $60,000 on Friday night.
With a gain of 13% in 7 days, there is ample reason to be bullish in the short term as the consolidation seems to be coming to an end, believes filbfilb.
The weekend comes in the middle of a tumultuous week; it’s hard not to be optimistic, he concluded.
I don’t think we will break through with the same ferocity, but I think we are on the verge of a strong breakthrough.
It is worth noting what happened to bitcoin when it initially broke through the $20,000 resistance. The sudden breakout pattern after a long period of consolidation and regression could result in an additional $60,000 mark.
I shared this similar price action/market structure a few weeks ago as what was seen around the $20k level that experienced a correction to c.50k before a violent breakout further filbfilb.
The price has played with this idea almost perfectly since then and is now threatening to break out.1-Day Candlestick Chart BTC/USD (Bitstamp). Source: View of the shop
Bull count based on IPO coins, options expired
However, this breakthrough will face challenges in the coming weeks. Coinbase, which is fully committed to an IPO on the 14th. April could unintentionally put downward pressure on prices.
As in the case of London-based Deliveroo this week, an IPO often results in a sale first, and the implications for bitcoin are clear.
We could see increased volatility around this time on April 14 and should pay particular attention to the period between then and the option expiration at the end of the month, filbfilb concluded.
expiration dates for open interest bitcoin options. Source: Bybt
The expiration of options at the end of the month can also cause the spot price to fluctuate temporarily, which was evident in late March when the number of expired options reached a record $6 billion. Ultimately, however, the event itself had no impact on BTC’s business.
There’s plenty of optimism ahead, predicts statistician Willie Wu.
Woo cites blockchain analytics service Glassnode, whose data on active BTC supply also suggests that bitcoin may be growing faster than the old hodlers are selling it at a profit, leading to the top of the cycle.
Despite the impact of Coinbase’s IPO on the market this month, the analyst doesn’t see bitcoin dropping below $46,400 anytime soon. He said:
46.4 is the price I don’t think we will visit in this bull market (daily close).
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